Of diamonds and responsible eternities

Millennials, often described in media as hapless, poor and unfocused, reportedly dropped a cool $25 Billion on diamond jewellery in 2015. This indicator of current and future demand for sparklers notwithstanding, we are nearing the peak of natural diamond mining.

It raises the question as to why synthetic diamonds have not taken off.

After all, millennials as consumers are also focused on environmental consciousness and reportedly willing to pay a premium too. Further, laboratory-grown synthetic diamonds — not to be confused with diamond simulants, such as the non-precious cubic zirconia and the semi-precious white sapphire — are virtually indistinguishable from natural diamonds mined from the womb of the Earth in an energy intensive and ecologically intrusive process. The Gemological Institute of America now even certifies that the synthetic diamond you have just bought is real, authentic synthetic. Synthetic diamonds also come from a transparent supply chain with no human exploitation, which is an excellent reason to choose them.

Why then isn’t the world switching en masse to the more environmentally sensible option?

The answer lies in the deeper probing of what shapes our preferences. We don’t buy diamonds, diamonds are sold to us. There is hard nosed business behind shaping our desires even though the traditional reasoning behind engagement rings no longer holds water, and plenty of women can and do buy their own diamond rings.

The economics is simple enough. Synthetic diamonds sell at a considerable discount to real diamonds. Trade makes more money selling a real diamond than it does selling a synthetic one, even with a certificate. In turn, this means a consumer is likely to see many, many more real diamonds on offer than she will see synthetic ones. This shapes the consumer’s consideration set and undoubtedly influences what gets bought.

The value chain reason is more interesting. Making synthetic diamonds is a capital intensive business. The barriers to entry of a new player are significant. So unless the demand for synthetic diamonds is proven to exist, investment may not come pouring into the space. In a delicious but understandable irony and a strategic masterstroke, a De Beers group company owns a vast majority of patents in the manufacturing of synthetic diamonds. So while it is possible to manufacture synthetic diamonds, it may be darned hard to do so without committing patent violations. This is not trivial. From a consumer’s point of view, this changes nothing and everything at once. De Beers has invested in distribution as well as, since Frances Gerety’s virtually immortal “A diamond is forever” line in 1948, branding for diamonds. It would have been foolhardy and self-destructive, if De Beers did not try to hold on to those advantages.

The branding reason is, of course, the strongest.

Most diamond purchases are not rational purchases but rationalised, emotionally led buys. Feelings are notoriously difficult to dislodge and remarkably easy to hurt. For years, the intrinsically “forever” and “real” character of diamonds has been used as some kind of proof of eternal love and commitment. Would a synthetic diamond ring mean fewer flaws, more perfection but also fake, performative love on the cheap?

Here lies the opportunity.

The brand story for the category itself is ripe for change.

Millennials say they are willing to pay a premium for environmentally friendly products (though not always willing to make good on those intentions). If the positioning is right, synthetic diamonds need not be sold on the cheap. They could be positioned as the environmentally friendly, technologically advanced, ecologically savvy, energy conserving version of the gemstone for the new, tech-savvy generation, while their sparkle still remains celebratory.

Thanks to digital platforms, the engagement with millennials can be kept quite targeted and kept away from the prying eyes of the boomers or even Generation X, who may be confused by the messaging about synthetic diamonds or feel cheated.

Moves are afoot in the space already.

Until a few years ago, when I heard the word “diamonds”,  Dame Shirley Bassey’s booming “Diamonds are forever” rang in my ears. Mental concerts are a real thing, look them up.  The song is wall-to-wall marketing of the De Beers catchphrase of enviable longevity.

However nothing lasts forever, as the rock prophet Axl Rose reminds us.  Why then should sparklers bear this unfair burden of eternity and permanence?

Why not move the discourse from eternity and permanence to a more achievable and realistic exhortation to just “shine like a diamond”?

Move over Dame Shirley, Rihanna, the millennial maestra, is here.

 

Helmsmanship of a modern luxury organisation

Change is afoot in the luxury industry. Fewer than 5 weeks into 2017 and several luxury firms’ CEOs have left or are leaving. It is just days since we heard that Chloe Creative Director Clare Wright Keller in Richemont was to quit and while I was writing this piece, Riccardo Tisci’s departure from Givenchy was announced.

While LVMH issued a warning, Ralph Lauren maintains its earnings guidance, even though the share price dropped on the news that Stefan Larsson is leaving.

These creative and corporate developments are taking place against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and also markets behaving exuberantly as if the stock market is somehow decoupled from the economic and political sentiment.

This may well be the year of reckoning for the luxury sector.

Luxury brands have too long dithered between their exclusive image and the effect of the democratic nature of the web. The digital consumer expects luxury brands to navigate the fine line between customising the experience for the consumer, because she is known to them but without becoming too familiar and intrusive. As various privacy related issues rear their head, and cultural expectations diverge, the problem becomes more challenging for luxury brands.

As “things” became more accessible, the pendulum swung towards exclusive “experiences” although this year is seeing the rise of the tangible, as Rebecca Robins, author of Meta-Luxury, says highlighting the resurgence of print books as well as millennials choosing Smythson and Moleskine notebooks to start their 2017.

The intangible and the physical however must both make money, retaining the interest and loyalty of customers across the demographic especially as millennials aren’t as broke as previously assumed.

When Larsson joined Ralph Lauren, its eponymous founder became chief creative officer stepping away from his CEO role, signalling the separation of creative from corporate, as it were. Differences over strategy is the given reason for Larsson’s departure.

Frankly this really isn’t the time for corporate and creative to cleave.

This is the time for corporate and creative to coalesce and pore collaboratively over the information contained both in the yottabytes of “big data” coming in from the many social media channels and consumer created content, as well as the “small data” that the brand’s heritage has yielded over the years.

This is the time for finding meaning in both of those and layering it with the essence of the luxury brand, to remain relevant in these times of change.

This is the time for the luxury sector — corporate and creative — to finally reckon with technology and find a new narrative of relevance that brings the sector in step with the times.

This is the time for creative and corporate leadership to reject Draytonesque kissing and parting, and choose Donne-like commitment to rejuvenate luxury’s relevance.

 

Brexit and the luxury brands of Britain

(A version of this article appeared in LiveMint on November the 17th, 2016.)

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s visit to India and trade talks with her Indian counterpart take me back to the midsummer’s day in 2016. We in Britain woke up to find that the Leave campaign, colloquially called Brexit, had won the referendum. The pound plummeted and for a while, the stock markets were in chaos. Markets stabilised but the pound continued a downward trend, beating historic lows.

Britain luxury brands are known for their heritage, design, craftsmanship, and quirky individuality which together shape a luxury narrative matched by no other country’s. London too is a choice destination for the experience of buying both British and non-British luxury brands.

The weakened pound was good news for tourists visiting the UK. The month of Ramazan, which traditionally brings wealthy visitors from the Middle East to London, followed. Flight bookings from Europe as well as Asia reportedly rose after the referendum. Premium and luxury hotels benefited from a rise in reservations and stays by overseas guests too. All this made London the hottest and cheapest luxury shopping destination this summer. Much shopping took place as is evident from UBS’s analysis of tax refund receipts. Tax refunds, which are typically sought on big ticket goods, rose by 36% in August.

So far the Brexit vote looks good for luxury shoppers from outside the UK. The picture for luxury brands is more complicated.

The iconic British brand Burberry has seen a 30% rise in sales in its British stores in the last six months. Facing headwinds otherwise, Burberry has also cut prices in its Hong Kong stores, taking advantage of the weaker pound as the brand notably incurs 40% of its costs in Britain.

It is a mixed picture for luxury watches, which are often presented as investment pieces, hence seen as considered purchases not impulse buys affected by currency fluctuations. Many coveted luxury watch brands are imported into the UK and the weaker pound has made the imported goods more expensive. Prices for brands such as Cartier and Mont Blanc, owned by the Richemont Group, have been increased while Hublot, Omega and Tag Heuer, owned by LVMH and Swatch Group, are holding on. The latter category of brands is taking the impact on its margins. For now.

The British luxury watch maker Bremont however is quids-in despite 30% of its costs being imports of Swiss watch parts, which are now more expensive. A weaker pound has helped the firm deal with falling sales in Asia and come out stronger.

To complete the picture and London being a hub for creative entrepreneurs, I spoke with proprietors of several upcoming luxury brands. My conversations revealed a mixed picture. Many small luxury brands source parts, finished products or packaging abroad while serving mainly local British customers. After the referendum, the bill of materials is decidedly more expensive by 10-30% depending on where they import from. As small businesses and nascent brands, however, they cannot always pass on the costs as price increases to the customer. Some however are slowly edging up prices of some products while keeping other prices steady. Overall this does not bode well for smaller, upcoming British luxury brands. Tighter margins will hamper their growth, and in many cases, their ability to survive.

It is also important to remember that despite the outcome of the referendum, Britain is, at the time of writing, still operating in the single European market with free movement of people. This makes it easier for people from Euro countries to travel to and shop in the UK. Any change in the ease of travel will affect Europeans travelling to and shopping in the UK just based on a weaker pound.

Luxury marques already under pressure, such as British car maker Aston Martin, expect a short term lift from the weakened pound but that may only last till Britain quits the single market. The automotive supply chain is global, and that will continue to affect the brand’s margins and profitability especially if Britain loses single market privileges and is not able to strike similarly attractive deals with the many countries where Aston Martin sells.

Some luxury brands are already thinking long term. For instance, Bremont is collaborating with the Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre in Sheffield to reduce its reliance on imported parts. Aston Martin too has made recent investments in product development and a new plant in the UK although its reliance on imported parts will continue for a while. But absent any clarity on the nature of trade deals Britain may be able to make, the return on these investments remains uncertain.

The pound recorded a brief recovery on November the 3rd, 2016 after the High Court ruled that the government will need parliament’s approval to trigger Article 50 which is essential for the official start of negotiations with the European Union. The judgment has temporarily buoyed the Remain voters. The uncertainty is further compounded by the government choosing to appeal the decision in the Supreme Court.

Luxury brands, like many others, will just have to sit tight and watch. After all, what is a couple of years in the grand schema of luxury brands that have lasted or intend to last for centuries?

Luxury’s talent conundrum

A version of this essay appeared on Hudson Walker International’s Opinion section published on November the 4th, 2016.

The Luxury sector is facing headwinds. Single digit growth seems here to stay. The behaviour and the expectations of the elusive but coveted millennial consumer remain somewhat a mystery with conflicting trends emerging. For instance, millennials seem disinterested in owning houses and cars, but are nonetheless happy dropping $25 Bn on diamond jewellery. The luxury consumer is globally mobile and digitally savvy, thus requiring brands to think of narratives that remain relevant and accessible in the many contexts in which the consumer might encounter the brand. The traditional luxury maison with its aura of exclusivity is also under challenge from the small, nimble luxury brand that not only knows where to find the new consumer but also to serve her well with messages and products that appeal to her, and do so in an agile manner. The emergence of these new brands is not unrelated to the technological developments challenging and reshaping the entire luxury value chain.

Like many other industries being redefined by technology and the warp speed of the web, the luxury sector too is facing a talent shaped challenge. The sector however remains quite conservative in where it sources talent, privileging industry embeddedness over attracting outsiders. These outsiders may come in and ask uncomfortable questions but they also have the ability and aptitude to shape the future of the industry. The need for luxury sector leadership to shake up their thinking on talent is apparent.

But how can they do it? Well, here are some ways to examine the existing thinking critically.

Consider whom you are attracting. While seeking to fill a position, if the hiring manager in the luxury maison sees applications from only those already working within industry, there is a problem. Pretty much every other industry has had to learn, some grudgingly, others more willingly, ways to reach out to active and passive talent where the talent hangs out and to make their brands more relevant to those professionals who would not otherwise consider them as possible employers.

Ask whether you are hiring for what they can do for the maison, or for what they have already done in their careers. This is trickier than it looks at first pass. Research suggests men are often hired for potential while women have to have proven it before. The luxury sector overwhelmingly sells to women, who have increasing economic power as well as alertness to governance issues in companies they buy from. The hiring-for-potential-or-proof challenge is exacerbated when companies are hiring for a future that is not fully spelt out and is unfurling as we watch. If you are seeking to acquire skills that are themselves nascent, consider that those skills may well have been acquired and demonstrated outside formal employment. As the boundaries between work and non-work areas of life dissolve, it is worth remembering that we bring our whole selves to wherever we go. Hiring conversations need to evolve from the curriculum vitae to exploring the passions of the individuals in their life. This will have to become normal as people pursue and build many careers within their professional lives, which brings me to the next point.

Before even seeking new talent, think deeply about how you will retain them, once they are hired. The adage that “employees do not leave companies, they leave their managers” needs modification. Employees leave in pursuit of fresh challenges knowing well that having multiple careers is now not a novelty but the default, and that only they themselves are responsible for shaping their work life. This challenge is multiplied manifold when the talent freshly hired is a a star and aware of her star power. Monetary and non-monetary incentives are the hygiene factors. Retention is about giving them something to believe in, something that lifts the game daily from mundane transactions to an opportunity to make a meaningful difference.

Lest this monograph should make these challenges sound insurmountable, I should add that this is where a seasoned and well-networked headhunter comes in. A good headhunter serves as the consigliere or consigliera to the maison. He or she understands the essence of the luxury brand, and can communicate it faithfully to a prospective candidate in a manner that bridges elegantly the gap between the narrative of the brand and its salience to a candidate’s aspirations. This is a crucial skill as a luxury mason’s success in attracting, hiring and retaining talent now depends on how well the leadership articulates their vision of the future and demonstrates that it is in line with the future emerging before our eyes.

The industry whose mainstay is heritage and craftsmanship is up against rapid technological and socio-political change. Something’s got to give for the industry to remain relevant and thrive. Talent is where the solution to that conundrum lies.

Autonomous cars and luxury marques

Aston Martin, James Bond’s car of choice (except when he went through a BMW phase), showcased a powerboat at Monaco Yacht Show this year. Writing in the Financial Times, Philip Delves Broughton laments that Bond’s legacy is being junked by this luxury marque and outlines the dangers of brands diversifying into unrelated categories, especially those far away from the brand’s core, while also acknowledging the financial pressures that may have brought about the powerboat.

Those are great arguments; indeed they are in line with the “we have heritage” argument that keeps many a luxury brand in that strange place where they are simultaneously desirable and at the risk of going out of business very fast. Those are also arguments that arise from a steady state style of thinking applied to the stark challenges faced by luxury businesses.

The challenge is altogether different. Existential, in fact.

As autonomous vehicles get on roads outside the Bay Area, indeed here in the UK not far from the Aston Martin Headquarters, the existential crisis facing luxury marques in cars is too urgent to ignore. They overwhelmingly pitch their cars as being about the pleasure of owning and driving a car as beautiful such as the Vanquish (I have my preferences but please feel free to imagine the marque that makes you go weak at the knees here!). There is a primal connection between the man and the (stunning) machine that is at the heart of the purchases of such cars.

With autonomous cars around the corner, the makers of such luxury cars may go out of business altogether.

What will be their offering, their raison d’être?

What deepest desires in our hearts will they be appealing to, with their beautiful — but self driving — cars?

Yes, I hear you cycling through Kübler-Ross. I am doing it too so you are not alone.

Meanwhile, let’s not pretend that the Aston Martin AM37 powerboat is only about the financial bottomline. There are existential choppy waters ahead. Aston Martin has found one way to navigate them. Unlike Bond, makers and purveyors of such luxury vehicles may not live to die another day. They have to think fast to remain relevant and in business at all. More previously unthinkable business models may be forthcoming from luxury car makers.

Mr Broughton meanwhile can perhaps take solace in the possibility of the next boat chase on the Thames featuring an Aston Martin! Bond’s heritage may be alive and well. For the time being.